Post by lgf on Apr 14, 2007 9:22:49 GMT -1
tell me....do you feel lucky?...do ya?...punk?
The whole nation loves a bet on the Grand National..(especially Scotland) and everyone seems to have their own method of making their selection. For many it will be their only bet of the year and so their choice may be based on nothing more scientific than their lucky number, their house number, or the name of a friend or relative. Similarly, the rather politically incorrect “housewives choice” is unlikely to emerge after long nights of studying the formbook, but will instead be a grey, or be based on the jockey or trainer.
Believe it or not, trends show it is possible to apply an element of science to the selection process and whilst, as the saying goes, there are lies, damn lies and statistics, it is hard to ignore certain of the historical trends.
In particularly, it is now common knowledge among more regular punters that horses carrying in excess of 11 stone rarely seem to win the National anymore and this, in theory, immediately allows us to rule out a good chunk of the field.
The next thing to bear in mind if you intend to have a bet before the day of the big race is that, of the horses entered (see the entries), only forty can run and so any horse below, say, number fifty five in that list has very little chance of taking part.
The key to having an ante post bet, of course, is to try to find a horse that is guaranteed to make the line up on the day and with the National this task is made even trickier than usual because of the limit on the number of runners who can take part. As always, well fancied horses will drop out right up to the day of the race due to injury, illness, loss of form etc. However, if your selection is below number 40 then there is this additional risk to take into account.
Finally, there is one completely unscientific factor to take into account. The history section of this site relives the greatest National stories of all time. However, almost without fail there is a fairytale behind every National winner and when analyzing the form of this year’s runners it is always worth having at the back of your mind whether there would be a fitting National story behind a win for a particular horse.
We've selected the Grand National winner for the last two years. Scroll down the page for our 2007 prediction.
So, who are the main contenders?
The Irish have dominated the race in recent seasons and their raiding party looks stronger than ever this year.
The Trends suggest that it is extremely difficult for a horse to win back to back Grand Nationals. However, there is no doubt that, on paper at least, Numbersixvalverde has a decent chance of repeating last year’s success. He was an impressive winner that day and the extra weight he has to carry this time around may not be enough to stop him. His whole season has been geared around this race and so don’t worry about his recent form. He’ll go to Aintree a fresh horse, which is the most important thing.
Key to Numbersixvalverde’svictory in 2006 was the rain that fell the evening before the race, which turned the ground dead. Not only did it suit this horse, whose best form is all on softer ground, it also hindered some of his rivals as stamina is undoubtedly his forte.
One of the horses outstayed by Numbersixvalverde was the previous year’s winner Hedgehunter.
Hedgehunter is becoming something of an Aintree specialist, having also run well in the 2005 National before falling at the last. However, as a consequence, he has steadily gone up the weights and will have to carry the welter burden of 11st 12lbs this time around. In addition, his preparations this year have been badly hindered by an ongoing knee problem. All in all, he may struggle to make the same impact on this year’s race as he has the previous three.
More interesting are the two Irish horses at the head of most ante post markets Point Barrow and Dun Doire.
Point Barrow proved his stamina for this event by winning last year’s Irish National. He then put up a career best effort when carrying top weight to success in the fiercely competitive Pierse Chase at Leopardstown in January. He has been freshened up since with this race in mind and appears to be a horse very much on the up.
Dun Doire was seventh in Point Barrow’s Irish National having won the William Hill Chase at the Cheltenham Festival on his previous start (that was his sixth straight win, during which time he went up more than 50lbs in the handicap). He came from last to first that day under an inspired ride from Ruby Walsh and looked like a horse destined to go on to further big race success. He missed the cut for last year’s National, but this season his whole campaign has been planned to have the horse in peak condition for this year’s event. The extra distance of the race could see him turn the tables on Point Barrow’s and he wouldn’t mind if conditions came up soft on the day. Also in his favour is a huge swing in the weights from their meeting at Fairyhouse, and there is no-one better than his trainer, Tony Martin, when it comes to laying a horse out for a big handicap.
Two other interesting Irish contenders, Slim Pickings and Livingstonebramble clashed in the Racing Post Plate at the Cheltenham Festival recently. Slim Pickings was an excellent fifth that day, staying on strong at the death as he has in many of his races to suggest this marathon test could bring out further improvement in him, as could his recent switch to new trainer, Tom Taaffe.
Livingstonebramble also looks ready for a try at this trip. He was well beaten behind Slim Pickings at the Festival, but previously had some good form behind Homer Wells (who is being targeted at the Irish National rather than this race) at Gowran Park. He would appreciate some better ground.
Bothar Na is a stable mate of Livingstonebramble. He is very lightly raced and hasn’t run since being pulled up in the Hennessy in November. He was fourth in last season’s Foxhunter Chase at the Cheltenham Festival and, more interestingly, he followed that up with another fourth in the equivalent race at Aintree over the National fences a few weeks later. He jumped very well that day and would have been a lot closer but for being hampered at a critical moment. He’s young and improving, and if his trainer has him back to his best, he’d be a danger to all on his favoured good ground.
Jack High was also well fancied for the 2006 National but also failed to complete the course – unseating his rider at the Chair. He won the 2005 Betfred Gold Cup (formerly the Whitbread) at Sandown and although his form has been generally regressive since, he has slipped down the handicap as a result and does at least have proven stamina. He also ran his best race for some time when second at Fairyhouse recently, beating Point Barrow and Numbersixvalverde in the process.
Other Irish entries to consider are Risk Accessor and Silver Birch.
Risk Accessor was a magnificent fifth in last year’s race. He is a slightly quirky customer, however, and looks the sort of horse who takes to the fences on his first run over them but then resents being asked to do it for a second time.
Silver Birch fell in last year’s race. He was a really promising chaser for Paul Nicholls a few years ago and was a strong ante post favourite for this race in 2005 before losing his way completely. He has since moved to a yard in Ireland and his new trainer seems to be gradually bringing back to form. He ran really well to finish second in the Sporting Index Chase, over the banks and hedges, at the Cheltenham Festival a few weeks ago. Again, decent ground would suite.
As well as those already mentioned, a number of other horses who contested last year’s race are looking to come back and have another crack at it this year. In fact, in Clan Royal’s case this will be his fourth attempt at the race in as many years. He was an unlucky second in 2004, he was then even more unfortunate to be carried out by a loose horse when travelling like a winner in 2005, and he was third last year. He has also won two other contests over the National fences during his career to date. He undoubtedly deserves to win the big one, but has his time passed? He has shown very little in a light campaign so far this season, but has clearly been trained with only one race in mind.
Of more interest is last year’s seventh, Joes Edge, who run a blinder recently to win the William Hill Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. He came from off the pace that day to outstay his rivals, and there is no doubt that this sort of trip suits him as he won the Scottish National as a novice in 2005. The win at Cheltenham was his first since then and it was probably partly down to the excellent form of his stable this year and partly to the decent ground that day, as he is not as effective on soft going. He has also come down a lot in the weights and looks dangerously well handicapped. The only question mark is whether his hard fought win at Cheltenham might have taken the edge of him.
Ballycassidy is another horse who goes best on top of the ground and he was running a great race in last year’s renewal when coming to grief at Valentine’s second time around. He was still six lengths clear at the time and really seemed to enjoy himself over the big fences. His form has been poor this year so far, but he has always been best in the spring.
Ballycassidy’s trainer has a couple of other entries, the best of which could be Mckelvey. He has been freshened up over the winter and had a nice pipe opener over hurdles recently. His previous run, in November, was in the Becher Chase over these fences, when he was staying on strongly in sixth (over 3m 2f). This trip, on decent ground, should suit.
That Becher Chase should prove to be an excellent guide to the National. Eurotrek was the winner of that day. He has always been a high class performer, but is very lightly raced having suffered all sorts of injuries and illnesses – he has only run 11 times since making his debut way back in 2001. He won easily that day, but has gone up a lot in the handicap as a result. If he gets to the start in one piece, and stays free of physical problems during the race itself, he’d have to have a good chance. He is just as likely to win as pull up.
Bewleys Berry was runner up to Eurotrek and comes from a stable that is in much better form now than it was back when the Becher Chase was run before Christmas. He is a sound jumper and thorough stayer, who has only run three times this season and so should be fresh and raring to go on the big day. His last run can be ignored as it was on unsuitably heavy going.
Le Duc (seventh), Joes Edge (eighth), Clan Royal (fell) and Dun Doire (fell) also ran in that race.
Others horses who have run well over the big fences in the past include Liberthine and Longshanks.
Liberthine won last year’s Topham Chase. The impressive mare has also won at the Cheltenham Festival and during her very successful career to date has given her inexperienced rider some great thrills. This is to be her last run before retiring to the paddocks and she is said to be thriving at home at the moment. Her form so far this season hasn’t been great, however, and there has to be a doubt about her stamina over the four miles plus distance.
Longshanks was second in the 2004 Topham and was fourth in the same race a year later. He has been trying to run in this race for a few seasons, and his handicap mark has now gone up enough to ensure he gets a run. He jumps well and looks likely to improve for this step up in trip – he was a staying on sixth in the 2005 Scottish National. One question mark is the form of his yard, as Kim Bailey has surprisingly been struggling since training the winners of both the Gold Cup and Champion Hurdle in 2005. He does, though, know how to win this race, having been successful with Mr Frisk in 1990.
Another race to bear in mind when analysing the form for this year’s National is the Gold Cup. Monkerhostin was fourth in the Festival highlight, with L’Ami seventh, whilst Idle Talk unseated his rider at the fifth.
Monkerhostin has been a top class performer for a number of years now, both over hurdles and fences. He was second in the 2005 King George and fourth in this season’s renewal. He was also sixth in last year’s Gold Cup and seldom runs a bad race. In a number of his starts over fences he has been staying on strongly at the death, and was a winner over three miles and a furlong over hurdles. He should, therefore, not have any problem with the trip. With this year’s National short on genuinely top class contenders, Monkerhostin has to be respected, and he is coming into form at just the right time.
The same is true of L’Ami. He has also run in the last two Gold Cups – finishing an excellent fourth last year. He lacks the gears of the very best chasers, though, and so this test may suit him. He’ll also have the assistance from the saddle of champion jockey, Tony McCoy.
Idle Talk has failed to complete on his last two starts, which is a worry considering the size of the National fences. However, victory for the horse would add to the amazing list of Aintree fairytales as he is trained by the son of the legendary Ginger McCain, who so skilfully oversaw the career of the great Red Rum. His previous connections always thought he was the perfect type for this race and if his jumping holds up he certainly has the ability to be involved at the death.
Victory for Idle Talk could only be surpassed on the fairytale scale by a success for Simon. He is owned by former trainer, Mercy Rimell, widow of Fred Rimell, who holds the record for training most National winners. To add to the story, Simon was bred by Mercy to give her a continued interest in racing during her retirement, and is trained from the same yard from which Fred sent out those four winners.
Simon is only small, but his owner feels that is a plus as a nimble horse is able to put himself right at the obstacles and is, therefore, more likely to get around safely. He has improved enormously this season, winning the Racing Post Chase on his last start, and is very game and tough. On the down side, most of his form has been on soft ground.
If the ground does come up soft on the day, then stamina will obviously be key and another horse to consider in those circumstances would be Philson Run. However, the current weather forecast suggests soft ground is unlikely and on decent ground the classier horses should come to the fore.
One horse that would suit is Thisthatandtother. He has only run beyond 2m 5f once in his career and so his stamina is a big doubt. However, he has been in the first three in 22 of his 30 starts to date. Five of those starts have come at the Cheltenham Festival where his form figures are an impressive 45F17. He is possibly reaching the twilight of his career and is probably a bit slower than he used to be, so this distance, on decent ground, may not now be beyond him.
Others to consider include the Charlie Edgerton pair, Gallant Approach and Graphic Approach - both are talented and open to further improvement - Billyvoddan, who has improved markedly on his last two starts having been fitted with blinkers and will go to Aintree a relatively fresh horse, and Kelami, who won the William Hill Chase at the 2005 Festival and ran an excellent race over hurdles in France on his last start. Victory for the French raider would provide another fairytale ending, as it is likely to be the last ride in the race for the brilliant Mick Fitzgerald.
Prediction
1st Dun Doire
2nd Bothar Na
3rd Joes Edge
4th Thisthatandtother
5th Point Barrow
6th Slim Pickings
The whole nation loves a bet on the Grand National..(especially Scotland) and everyone seems to have their own method of making their selection. For many it will be their only bet of the year and so their choice may be based on nothing more scientific than their lucky number, their house number, or the name of a friend or relative. Similarly, the rather politically incorrect “housewives choice” is unlikely to emerge after long nights of studying the formbook, but will instead be a grey, or be based on the jockey or trainer.
Believe it or not, trends show it is possible to apply an element of science to the selection process and whilst, as the saying goes, there are lies, damn lies and statistics, it is hard to ignore certain of the historical trends.
In particularly, it is now common knowledge among more regular punters that horses carrying in excess of 11 stone rarely seem to win the National anymore and this, in theory, immediately allows us to rule out a good chunk of the field.
The next thing to bear in mind if you intend to have a bet before the day of the big race is that, of the horses entered (see the entries), only forty can run and so any horse below, say, number fifty five in that list has very little chance of taking part.
The key to having an ante post bet, of course, is to try to find a horse that is guaranteed to make the line up on the day and with the National this task is made even trickier than usual because of the limit on the number of runners who can take part. As always, well fancied horses will drop out right up to the day of the race due to injury, illness, loss of form etc. However, if your selection is below number 40 then there is this additional risk to take into account.
Finally, there is one completely unscientific factor to take into account. The history section of this site relives the greatest National stories of all time. However, almost without fail there is a fairytale behind every National winner and when analyzing the form of this year’s runners it is always worth having at the back of your mind whether there would be a fitting National story behind a win for a particular horse.
We've selected the Grand National winner for the last two years. Scroll down the page for our 2007 prediction.
So, who are the main contenders?
The Irish have dominated the race in recent seasons and their raiding party looks stronger than ever this year.
The Trends suggest that it is extremely difficult for a horse to win back to back Grand Nationals. However, there is no doubt that, on paper at least, Numbersixvalverde has a decent chance of repeating last year’s success. He was an impressive winner that day and the extra weight he has to carry this time around may not be enough to stop him. His whole season has been geared around this race and so don’t worry about his recent form. He’ll go to Aintree a fresh horse, which is the most important thing.
Key to Numbersixvalverde’svictory in 2006 was the rain that fell the evening before the race, which turned the ground dead. Not only did it suit this horse, whose best form is all on softer ground, it also hindered some of his rivals as stamina is undoubtedly his forte.
One of the horses outstayed by Numbersixvalverde was the previous year’s winner Hedgehunter.
Hedgehunter is becoming something of an Aintree specialist, having also run well in the 2005 National before falling at the last. However, as a consequence, he has steadily gone up the weights and will have to carry the welter burden of 11st 12lbs this time around. In addition, his preparations this year have been badly hindered by an ongoing knee problem. All in all, he may struggle to make the same impact on this year’s race as he has the previous three.
More interesting are the two Irish horses at the head of most ante post markets Point Barrow and Dun Doire.
Point Barrow proved his stamina for this event by winning last year’s Irish National. He then put up a career best effort when carrying top weight to success in the fiercely competitive Pierse Chase at Leopardstown in January. He has been freshened up since with this race in mind and appears to be a horse very much on the up.
Dun Doire was seventh in Point Barrow’s Irish National having won the William Hill Chase at the Cheltenham Festival on his previous start (that was his sixth straight win, during which time he went up more than 50lbs in the handicap). He came from last to first that day under an inspired ride from Ruby Walsh and looked like a horse destined to go on to further big race success. He missed the cut for last year’s National, but this season his whole campaign has been planned to have the horse in peak condition for this year’s event. The extra distance of the race could see him turn the tables on Point Barrow’s and he wouldn’t mind if conditions came up soft on the day. Also in his favour is a huge swing in the weights from their meeting at Fairyhouse, and there is no-one better than his trainer, Tony Martin, when it comes to laying a horse out for a big handicap.
Two other interesting Irish contenders, Slim Pickings and Livingstonebramble clashed in the Racing Post Plate at the Cheltenham Festival recently. Slim Pickings was an excellent fifth that day, staying on strong at the death as he has in many of his races to suggest this marathon test could bring out further improvement in him, as could his recent switch to new trainer, Tom Taaffe.
Livingstonebramble also looks ready for a try at this trip. He was well beaten behind Slim Pickings at the Festival, but previously had some good form behind Homer Wells (who is being targeted at the Irish National rather than this race) at Gowran Park. He would appreciate some better ground.
Bothar Na is a stable mate of Livingstonebramble. He is very lightly raced and hasn’t run since being pulled up in the Hennessy in November. He was fourth in last season’s Foxhunter Chase at the Cheltenham Festival and, more interestingly, he followed that up with another fourth in the equivalent race at Aintree over the National fences a few weeks later. He jumped very well that day and would have been a lot closer but for being hampered at a critical moment. He’s young and improving, and if his trainer has him back to his best, he’d be a danger to all on his favoured good ground.
Jack High was also well fancied for the 2006 National but also failed to complete the course – unseating his rider at the Chair. He won the 2005 Betfred Gold Cup (formerly the Whitbread) at Sandown and although his form has been generally regressive since, he has slipped down the handicap as a result and does at least have proven stamina. He also ran his best race for some time when second at Fairyhouse recently, beating Point Barrow and Numbersixvalverde in the process.
Other Irish entries to consider are Risk Accessor and Silver Birch.
Risk Accessor was a magnificent fifth in last year’s race. He is a slightly quirky customer, however, and looks the sort of horse who takes to the fences on his first run over them but then resents being asked to do it for a second time.
Silver Birch fell in last year’s race. He was a really promising chaser for Paul Nicholls a few years ago and was a strong ante post favourite for this race in 2005 before losing his way completely. He has since moved to a yard in Ireland and his new trainer seems to be gradually bringing back to form. He ran really well to finish second in the Sporting Index Chase, over the banks and hedges, at the Cheltenham Festival a few weeks ago. Again, decent ground would suite.
As well as those already mentioned, a number of other horses who contested last year’s race are looking to come back and have another crack at it this year. In fact, in Clan Royal’s case this will be his fourth attempt at the race in as many years. He was an unlucky second in 2004, he was then even more unfortunate to be carried out by a loose horse when travelling like a winner in 2005, and he was third last year. He has also won two other contests over the National fences during his career to date. He undoubtedly deserves to win the big one, but has his time passed? He has shown very little in a light campaign so far this season, but has clearly been trained with only one race in mind.
Of more interest is last year’s seventh, Joes Edge, who run a blinder recently to win the William Hill Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. He came from off the pace that day to outstay his rivals, and there is no doubt that this sort of trip suits him as he won the Scottish National as a novice in 2005. The win at Cheltenham was his first since then and it was probably partly down to the excellent form of his stable this year and partly to the decent ground that day, as he is not as effective on soft going. He has also come down a lot in the weights and looks dangerously well handicapped. The only question mark is whether his hard fought win at Cheltenham might have taken the edge of him.
Ballycassidy is another horse who goes best on top of the ground and he was running a great race in last year’s renewal when coming to grief at Valentine’s second time around. He was still six lengths clear at the time and really seemed to enjoy himself over the big fences. His form has been poor this year so far, but he has always been best in the spring.
Ballycassidy’s trainer has a couple of other entries, the best of which could be Mckelvey. He has been freshened up over the winter and had a nice pipe opener over hurdles recently. His previous run, in November, was in the Becher Chase over these fences, when he was staying on strongly in sixth (over 3m 2f). This trip, on decent ground, should suit.
That Becher Chase should prove to be an excellent guide to the National. Eurotrek was the winner of that day. He has always been a high class performer, but is very lightly raced having suffered all sorts of injuries and illnesses – he has only run 11 times since making his debut way back in 2001. He won easily that day, but has gone up a lot in the handicap as a result. If he gets to the start in one piece, and stays free of physical problems during the race itself, he’d have to have a good chance. He is just as likely to win as pull up.
Bewleys Berry was runner up to Eurotrek and comes from a stable that is in much better form now than it was back when the Becher Chase was run before Christmas. He is a sound jumper and thorough stayer, who has only run three times this season and so should be fresh and raring to go on the big day. His last run can be ignored as it was on unsuitably heavy going.
Le Duc (seventh), Joes Edge (eighth), Clan Royal (fell) and Dun Doire (fell) also ran in that race.
Others horses who have run well over the big fences in the past include Liberthine and Longshanks.
Liberthine won last year’s Topham Chase. The impressive mare has also won at the Cheltenham Festival and during her very successful career to date has given her inexperienced rider some great thrills. This is to be her last run before retiring to the paddocks and she is said to be thriving at home at the moment. Her form so far this season hasn’t been great, however, and there has to be a doubt about her stamina over the four miles plus distance.
Longshanks was second in the 2004 Topham and was fourth in the same race a year later. He has been trying to run in this race for a few seasons, and his handicap mark has now gone up enough to ensure he gets a run. He jumps well and looks likely to improve for this step up in trip – he was a staying on sixth in the 2005 Scottish National. One question mark is the form of his yard, as Kim Bailey has surprisingly been struggling since training the winners of both the Gold Cup and Champion Hurdle in 2005. He does, though, know how to win this race, having been successful with Mr Frisk in 1990.
Another race to bear in mind when analysing the form for this year’s National is the Gold Cup. Monkerhostin was fourth in the Festival highlight, with L’Ami seventh, whilst Idle Talk unseated his rider at the fifth.
Monkerhostin has been a top class performer for a number of years now, both over hurdles and fences. He was second in the 2005 King George and fourth in this season’s renewal. He was also sixth in last year’s Gold Cup and seldom runs a bad race. In a number of his starts over fences he has been staying on strongly at the death, and was a winner over three miles and a furlong over hurdles. He should, therefore, not have any problem with the trip. With this year’s National short on genuinely top class contenders, Monkerhostin has to be respected, and he is coming into form at just the right time.
The same is true of L’Ami. He has also run in the last two Gold Cups – finishing an excellent fourth last year. He lacks the gears of the very best chasers, though, and so this test may suit him. He’ll also have the assistance from the saddle of champion jockey, Tony McCoy.
Idle Talk has failed to complete on his last two starts, which is a worry considering the size of the National fences. However, victory for the horse would add to the amazing list of Aintree fairytales as he is trained by the son of the legendary Ginger McCain, who so skilfully oversaw the career of the great Red Rum. His previous connections always thought he was the perfect type for this race and if his jumping holds up he certainly has the ability to be involved at the death.
Victory for Idle Talk could only be surpassed on the fairytale scale by a success for Simon. He is owned by former trainer, Mercy Rimell, widow of Fred Rimell, who holds the record for training most National winners. To add to the story, Simon was bred by Mercy to give her a continued interest in racing during her retirement, and is trained from the same yard from which Fred sent out those four winners.
Simon is only small, but his owner feels that is a plus as a nimble horse is able to put himself right at the obstacles and is, therefore, more likely to get around safely. He has improved enormously this season, winning the Racing Post Chase on his last start, and is very game and tough. On the down side, most of his form has been on soft ground.
If the ground does come up soft on the day, then stamina will obviously be key and another horse to consider in those circumstances would be Philson Run. However, the current weather forecast suggests soft ground is unlikely and on decent ground the classier horses should come to the fore.
One horse that would suit is Thisthatandtother. He has only run beyond 2m 5f once in his career and so his stamina is a big doubt. However, he has been in the first three in 22 of his 30 starts to date. Five of those starts have come at the Cheltenham Festival where his form figures are an impressive 45F17. He is possibly reaching the twilight of his career and is probably a bit slower than he used to be, so this distance, on decent ground, may not now be beyond him.
Others to consider include the Charlie Edgerton pair, Gallant Approach and Graphic Approach - both are talented and open to further improvement - Billyvoddan, who has improved markedly on his last two starts having been fitted with blinkers and will go to Aintree a relatively fresh horse, and Kelami, who won the William Hill Chase at the 2005 Festival and ran an excellent race over hurdles in France on his last start. Victory for the French raider would provide another fairytale ending, as it is likely to be the last ride in the race for the brilliant Mick Fitzgerald.
Prediction
1st Dun Doire
2nd Bothar Na
3rd Joes Edge
4th Thisthatandtother
5th Point Barrow
6th Slim Pickings
